Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…

Listen to a short summary of this report     Executive Summary GIS Projection For The EUR/USD  We went long the euro early last week, as EUR/USD hit our buy limit price of $0.99. Despite a near cut-off of…

Executive Summary At the margin, the European Union’s proposed €140 billion “windfall profits” tax on electricity providers not using natural gas to generate power will blunt the message markets are sending to…

Dear client, We will not be publishing the US Equity Strategy next week, as I will be participating in BCA Investment Conference. We will return to our regular publishing schedule on September 19, 2022. Kind Regards, Irene Tunkel…

Listen to a short summary of this report     Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become…

Executive Summary US Military Constraint: Strait Of Hormuz  A US-Iran deal would make for a notable improvement in the geopolitical backdrop during an otherwise gloomy year. It would remove the risk of a major new oil shock…

Dear Client, We will not be publishing the Commodity & Energy Strategy next week, as I will be participating in a panel discussion with Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), which will focus…

Executive Summary   Surging Electricity, Gas Prices Will Fuel Higher Inflation  Heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere are sending electricity and natgas prices through the roof, which will feed into higher inflation…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating  The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…

Executive Summary Russia’s Crude Oil Output Will Fall  Russia will have to lower oil production to ensure output it hasn’t placed with non-EU buyers does not tax its limited storage facilities, ahead of the bloc’s…