Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral relative to global stocks. At the same time, we are closing our tactical…
Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long We expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth. Markets will be volatile, but we recommend…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
Executive Summary Stronger Capex Than Last Decade The fog of war continues, but the worst potential outcome for the market—a freeze of Russian energy exports to Europe—has been avoided. Energy inflation is…
Executive Summary Risk Premium Abates, But Does Not Disappear The risk premium in crude oil and natural gas prices is abating, and we expect that to continue. In the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion, Brent…
Executive Summary Copper Demand Follows GDP European copper demand will increase on the back of still-accommodative monetary policy, coupled with a loosening of COVID-19-related gathering and mobility restrictions as the…
Executive Summary US Treasury yields have surged in response to high US inflation and Fed tightening expectations. However, the move looks overdone in the near-term. Too many Fed hikes are now discounted for 2022, US realized…