Highlights The fourth quarter will be volatile as China still poses a risk of overtightening policy and undermining the global recovery. US political risks are also elevated. A debt default is likely to be averted in the end. Fiscal…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service concludes that the ultimate path global gas prices will take is at maximum uncertainty at present. The current heated – no pun intended – competition for natgas going into…
HighlightsThe power shortage in China due to depleted coal inventories and low hydro availability will push copper and aluminum inventories lower, as refineries there – which account for roughly one-half of global capacity – are shut to…
Highlights The global fight against the Delta variant of COVID-19 continued to show progress in the month of September, but not without cost. Growth in services activity slowed meaningfully, which has likely delayed the return to…
The sharp selloff in Treasurys over the past week has ignited a debate among BCA Research strategists about whether it is attributed to rising fears about inflation (see Country Focus) or is part of the reopening trade. The…
Brent prices climbed to an over six-year high on Tuesday, nearly touching $80/bbl. Current prices are above our Commodity & Energy strategists’ expectation that prices will average $70.50/bbl in Q4 and $75/bbl in 2022. The…
BCA Research’s Counterpoint service’s favored trade this week is to short the rally in uranium plays. The recent near-vertical ascent in uranium plays have left many investors scratching their heads and wondering: what’s going…
Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
In May we argued that the rally in uranium is likely to power ahead. Since then, the price of uranium traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose from $31.40/lb to $47.75/lb. The Global X Uranium ETF which we recommended at…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on…