Highlights Recommended Allocation The outlook for markets over the next few months is highly uncertain. On the optimistic side, new COVID-19 cases are probably close to peaking (for now), and so equities could continue to…
Highlights Chinese stocks have outperformed global benchmarks by a wide margin. We are taking profits on our overweight position, and downgrading our tactical call on Chinese stocks to neutral. In absolute terms, Chinese stocks have…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service concluded that oil prices could first fall further and then take off higher. Without a concerted effort by OPEC 2.0 – the coalition led by KSA and Russia…
Dear Client, I will be discussing the economic and financial implications of the pandemic with my colleague Caroline Miller this Friday, March 27 at 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 PM GMT, 1:00 PM CET, 8:00 PM HKT). I hope you will be able to join…
Crude oil options’ implied volatility remains close to record levels following unprecedented price changes – in both directions – in the underlying futures markets over the past month. Implied…
Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…
Highlights Rapidly changing news flows are forcing oil markets to recalibrate supply-demand fundamentals continuously. This will keep volatility at or close to recent record highs (Chart of the Week). The demand shock from COVID-19…
Yesterday, BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service surveyed the oil demand destruction attributable to COVID-19. Oil prices have fallen 60% YTD after being struck by simultaneous exogenous demand and supply shocks. We…
Highlights The global economy is in the midst of a painful recession. Monetary and fiscal authorities are responding forcefully to the crisis, but the lengths of the lockouts and quarantines remain a major source of downside risk…