Global energy stocks are nudging into their 12th year anniversary of a bear market in relative performance terms. This represents a 65% peak to trough decline, with the latest selloff symptomatic of a capitulation phase. We…
Highlights The COVID-19-induced demand shock in China – and a stronger USD – will reduce growth in global crude oil consumption to just over 1mm b/d this year, vs. earlier expectations of ~ 1.4mm b/d. Significant fiscal and…
The broad commodity complex is oversold, but there has been a stark divergence in the performance of the underlying subsectors. Sentiment towards energy-related commodities such as crude oil and natural gas has soured, while…
Highlights Base metals appear to be pricing the impact of the Chinese 2019-nCoV coronavirus in line with the 2003 SARS outbreak. We expect an earlier peak in reported (ex-Hubei) cases than is currently discounted by markets, implying…
Highlights The intense focus on the weakening of global oil demand expected in the wake of another coronavirus outbreak in China – dubbed 2019-nCoV – obscures likely supply-side responses by OPEC 2.0. The producer…
Crude oil fundamentals continue to favor higher prices. We continue to expect demand to grow 1.4mm b/d this year. For 2021, we expect growth of just under 1.5mm b/d, reaching 103.65mm b/d globally. For its part, the EIA is…
Highlights The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China is now being priced into commodity markets, with comparisons to the 2003 SARS outbreak serving as an early benchmark.1 If it follows the SARS trajectory its impact likely will be…
Overweight US refiners enjoyed a solid run for the better part of 2019, but over the past three months have retraced roughly a third of those relative gains. Nevertheless, we remain overweight the S&P oil & gas…