BCA’s Brent and WTI forecasts for 2020 stand at $67/bbl and $63/bbl, respectively. Risks are skewed to the upside if enough OPEC members produce within their quotas. Moreover, OPEC 2.0’s production-cutting deal…
The last of the big projects sanctioned prior to the oil-price collapse that lasted from 2H14 to 1H16 are coming online in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and the US Gulf. For the most part, the “Other Guys” –…
Highlights A 400k b/d addition to OPEC 2.0’s official production cut of 1.2mm b/d will have little effect on actual supplies. The market already has seen ~ 2.0mm to 2.5mm b/d of output removed from the market via excess voluntary…
China’s domestic energy sector outperforms when oil prices and domestic headline inflation rise. However, this is a behavioral relationship rather than a fundamental one. Unlike their investable peers, domestic energy…
Global growth expectations for oil demand are diverging sharply in the lead-up to OPEC 2.0’s December 5 meeting in Vienna. At the low end, the US EIA expects 2019 growth of 760k b/d this year, a sharply lower estimate than…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…
Highlights Lingering weakness evident in fundamental supply-demand data will fade next year, and with it the downward pressure on oil prices. Price risk is skewed to the upside: Continued monetary accommodation from systematically…
China’s interest in Aramco goes back almost four years. It reflects an economic and geopolitical calculus encompassing more than an equity claim on the world’s largest, lowest-cost, most profitable oil company.…