The situation in Saudi Arabia is still unfolding following the weekend’s drone strikes that removed ~5.7 mm barrels per day from the global oil market. The price of Brent crude oil spiked yesterday, from $61 to $68, and…
Following drone attacks on critical oil infrastructure in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) over the weekend, which removed ~ 5.7mm b/d of output, the U.S. is likely to conduct a limited retaliatory strike. In addition, the U.S. will…
In the immediate aftermath of the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's massive 7-million-barrel-per-day processing facility at Abqaiq and the Khurais oil fields, which produces close to 2mm b/d, markets will be hanging on every…
Commodity demand appears to be turning up, based on our assessment of global industrial activity. As demand picks up, we expect industrial commodity prices will move higher (Chart of the Week, top panel). For all practical purposes,…
As the summer holidays become a memory, central banks globally are mobilizing to fight mounting recession risks. More than 30 at last count are busily easing financial conditions to boost growth (Chart of the Week). Going into 4Q19, this…
In our balances estimates, we show OPEC producing 29.8mm b/d of crude oil on average this year, and 29.7mm b/d next year. This is down sharply from the 32mm b/d we estimate the Cartel produced last year, which included a surge in…
For 2019, a grouping of negative demand-side effects have proven to be strong – uncertainty spawned by the Sino-U.S. trade-war, tightening financial conditions globally, and the strong USD. As a result, we have been forced…
Hard-to-predict policy risks and trade-war uncertainty will continue to hinder oil-demand growth, as will USD strength. The cost of oil in local-currency terms remains close to highs not seen since Brent and WTI traded above $100/bbl in…
While price levels have been hammered lower by trade policy uncertainty and global growth fears, the Brent and WTI forward curves remain backwardated. This normally indicates market tightness – i.e., refiners are willing to…