Highlights The current global trade downtrend has primarily been due to a contraction in Chinese imports. The latter reflects weakness in China's domestic demand in general and capital spending in particular. The current global…
Chart II-1Is Deflation In Steel And Coal Back? Unlike 2015 when steel, iron ore and coal prices collapsed, in the current downturn they have so far held up reasonably well. They have begun falling only recently (Chart II-1).…
How important is the potential thawing of the Sino-U.S. trade war to oil markets? On a scale of 1 – 10, this goes up to 11 (Chart of the Week). Brent’s and WTI’s one-day rally of ~ 5% on Tuesday, followed by a 4.…
The next few months will provide important information to markets and policymakers alike, as both wait to see whether the concerted monetary policy efforts aimed at reviving the real economy – manufacturing, in particular…
Much like the rest of the global economy, oil markets await the lift in demand that fiscal and monetary stimulus have delivered in the past. As the debate among BCA Research’s strategists demonstrated, this is not a given.…
The long global gold miners/short S&P oil & gas exploration & production pair trade hit our recently augmented trailing stop intraday yesterday, and we obeyed this stop and locked in gains of 12% since its July 15th inception…
Last Thursday we were stopped out from our tactical S&P semi equipment underweight position as it hit our -7% stop loss (bottom panel). We are obeying the stop loss and are returning this index to a neutral weighting as…
U.S. shale oil is filling a market need for light-sweet crude and condensate, and is attracting investment to meet this need. It does compete with light-sweet OPEC production ex Persian Gulf, but investment in these countries has…
On the supply side, we continue to expect OPEC 2.0’s production strategy to be driven by its primary goal – i.e., reducing global oil inventories. This means the coalition will continue to exercise production…
Oil price volatility will remain elevated, as markets transition from a pronounced demand slowdown in 1H19, which is apparent in actual consumption data, to stronger growth. We expect global fiscal and monetary accommodation will…