One way to benefit from the global growth soft-patch is to go long global gold miners/short S&P oil & gas E&P stocks on a tactical three-to-six month basis. Since our Monday inception three days ago, this pair trade…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recession odds continue to tick higher, according to the NY Fed’s probability of recession model, at a time when global growth is waning, U.S. profit growth is contracting and the non-financial ex-…
The theme of subsea tie-backs and low-risk development will remain in place going forward, according to IHS Markit. Producers are favoring these projects to limit their exposure to oil price fluctuations. BP and Shell signaled…
Since 3Q18, our modeling of U.S oil production has focused mainly on onshore production excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We’ve relied largely on the U.S. EIA‘s estimates for GOM production, given that our own…
In 2H19, accommodative global monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will revive demand for industrial commodities, particularly in EM economies. This will be most apparent in oil markets, where our Commodity & Energy Strategy…
Highlights The breakout in financial asset prices stands at odds with a deteriorating profit outlook. This suggests a high probability of a coiled-spring reversal in one of the two variables as we enter the thin summer trading months.…
Oil prices will remain volatile as markets work through the lingering effects of tighter financial conditions prevailing last year, which, along with extended angst over Sino-U.S. trade tensions, slowed commodity demand growth (Chart of…
Highlights Central banks globally have turned dovish, with the Fed virtually promising to cut rates in July. But this will be an “insurance” cut, like 1995 and 1998, not the beginning of a pre-recessionary easing cycle.…