After a brief rebound, the ratio of risk-on vs. Safe-Haven currencies used by BCA’s Emerging Market Strategy team has once again rolled over. This ratio picked up the growing risks to global demand last year, worries that…
The oil rout that began in October appears to have run its course, based on positioning, sentiment and technicals. All the same, several cross-market gauges we designed to assess investors’ conviction on global macro conditions…
Getting right to the point: Oil fundamentals are, and could remain, disconnected from benchmark prices, as they were in the waning days of 2018, when markets were forced to recalibrate global supply-demand balances in the dark. Four…
Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.…
Dear Client, This is our last publication of 2018. We wish all our clients a Merry Christmas and a Happy New year! We will be back on January 3, 2019. Thank you, The Commodity & Energy Strategy Team! Because they missed…
Dear Client, This will be the last Global Investment Strategy report of 2018. Publication will resume on January 4th. On behalf of the entire Global Investment Strategy team, I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays,…
While the Trump Administration’s flip-flop on the Iranian sanctions has injected extreme volatility into oil prices, some semblance of normality has returned to the crude oil markets as last week OPEC and Russia agreed to a…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The drubbing in the S&P semi equipment index is overdone and even a modest improvement on either the trade policy, industry demand or currency fronts could result in a reflex rebound, warranting an…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…