Our Commodity & Energy Strategy group has been prescient about oil since 2015. The team blends bottom-up fundamental analysis, top-down global macro analysis, and insights from trading markets fosters a holistic view of all…
October and November were terrible months for global markets, but oil prices stand out as the primary underperformer among the major assets. If a global recession really were afoot, EM and Chinese equities would not likely be…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Highlights Crude oil has had an awful two months, ... : As bad as October and November have been for financial assets, they've been worse for oil, which shed more than 30% of its value in the span of just eight weeks. ... but its…
Highlights When we flagged the increasing likelihood of higher volatility a few weeks ago, we did not expect the Trump Administration's granting of waivers on sanctions against Iranian oil exports, which ultimately led to the oil-…
The benchmark Brent oil price fell 11% in October, but has fallen another 7% in November. This has been enough to nearly wipe out the entire 20% run-up seen in August and September. Global government bond yields have been very…
Highlights Falling Oil Prices & Bond Yields: Murky trends in global growth data, at a time of tight labor markets and gently rising inflation, are preventing a full recovery of risk assets after the October correction. A new…
On Monday, the U.S. granted waivers to eight "jurisdictions" - China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Greece and Taiwan - allowing them to continue to import Iranian oil for 180 days. This was a higher-than-…