Highlights Gold's performance during the "Red October" equities sell-off, coupled with that of the most widely followed gold ratios (copper- and oil-to-gold), indicates investors and commodity traders are not pricing in a…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Overbought technicals, pricey valuations, decelerating global growth, declining capex, rising indebtedness and softening operating metrics argue for hopping off the S&P railroads index. Rising…
Mounting supply-side uncertainty will keep the risk premium in oil prices - and volatility - elevated after U.S. export sanctions against Iran kick in November 4 (Chart of the Week). Chart of the WeekOil-Price Risk Premium Will Continue…
Highlights Policy easing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a bottom in the business cycle. For monetary easing to become effective, there should be loan demand, banks should be willing to lend, and businesses and…
Highlights We do not view October's equity downdraft as a signal to further trim risk assets to underweight. Nonetheless, stocks have not yet fallen enough to justify buying either. The economic divergence between the U.S. and the…
Overweight For the better part of this decade, the rise and fall of WTI has been the fundamental driver of the fortunes of the S&P oil & gas exploration & production (E&P) index, as it should be. However,…
On the supply side, coal output will rise only moderately (i.e., 2-3%) in 2019. There are three drivers pushing up Chinese coal output. In May the government asked domestic coal producers to ramp up coal output. 660 million…
While oil demand growth is slowing somewhat, exports from two of OPEC's largest producers - Iran and Venezuela - are falling precipitously. Global oil inventories are drawing down, while spare capacity is perilously low,…
Highlights The long term direction for the pound is higher... ...but as the EU withdrawal bill passes through the U.K. parliament, expect a very hairy ride. The stock markets in Norway, Sweden and Denmark are driven by energy,…