It turns out that what matters for implied volatility of oil is the slope of the crude futures curve. A futures curve in contango, where long-dated futures trade at a higher price than short-dated futures, tends to be associated…
Highlights Duration: Last week's bond market rout was driven by strong U.S. data. Global growth (ex. U.S.) continues to weaken. Weak foreign growth that migrates stateside via a stronger dollar remains the biggest risk to our below…
Highlights Chart of the WeekIncreasing Gas-On-Gas Pricing Will Disrupt Global LNG Markets Growth in the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market will be fuelled by surging U.S. natural gas production, which will allow consumers…
Highlights Investors who are betting on a quick resolution to the U.S./China trade war following the "new NAFTA" deal and the U.S. midterm elections have likely been taken in by false hope. Stay neutral China relative to…
Highlights Macro outlook: Global growth will continue to decelerate into early next year on the back of brewing EM stresses and an underwhelming policy response from China. Equities: Stay neutral for now, while underweighting EM…
Highlights The risk of unplanned oil-production outages is rising. One or more such events will severely test OPEC 2.0's spare capacity in a supply-constrained market (Chart of the Week).1 As things now stand, OPEC 2.0 spare capacity…