Highlights Our antennae are twitching wildly, as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) walks back a widely telegraphed commitment to surge production. This occurs against the backdrop of a possible loss of as much as 2mm b/d in exports from…

  Overweight The divergence between rising crude oil prices and the performance of exploration & production (E&P) stocks has grown remarkably wide (top panel). We continue to credit the absence of market belief in the…

Highlights The eye of the storm is passing over the oil market. OPEC 2.0's recent production increase will temporarily halt the sharp decline in OECD commercial oil inventories, allowing stocks of crude oil and refined products in…

Highlights President Trump has taken the next step in the trade war by charging some of America's major trading partners with outright currency manipulation. However, we are not headed for Plaza Accord 2.0, because neither the ECB…

Highlights Global Yields: Flattening government yield curves in the developed world have raised concerns about a potential future growth slowdown. Yet real policy rates will need to move into positive territory before monetary policy…

Please note that our next publication will be a joint special report with BCA’s Geopolitical Service that will be published on Wednesday, August 1st instead of our usual Monday publishing schedule. Further, there will be no…

Special Report

Highlights Rising non-OPEC production and the Trump administration's successful efforts at jawboning OPEC into increasing oil production - including a not-so-subtle threat that American protection of the Cartel's Gulf Arab…

Refiners have taken it to the chin over the past six weeks, underperforming both the SPX and the broad energy complex, and deteriorating industry fundamentals signal that more pain lies ahead. Crack spreads have given way recently, and…

Highlights President Trump is a prisoner of his own mercantilist rhetoric - there is more trade tension and volatility to come; China's depreciation of the RMB can go further - and will elicit more punitive measures from Trump;…

Overweight Disbelief in the longevity of the increase in oil prices is the likely culprit weighing on exploration & production (E&P) stocks along with a bottleneck-induced steep shale oil price discount to WTI. Nevertheless,…