Highlights Portfolio Strategy Rising oil prices, a weakened U.S. dollar, ongoing global oil producer discipline and still compelling valuations argue for maintaining an above benchmark allocation in the S&P energy index. Wide…

Overweight We lifted refiners to overweight in mid-September as the pricing environment looked set to improve dramatically, driven by Hurricane Harvey-related refinery shutdowns and the resulting inventory drawdowns, boosted by an…

Special Report

A capex revival is underway, powered by exceptionally strong business and consumer sentiment, the breadth of which covers virtually all developed economies. This global capex upcycle should underpin top-line growth and margin expansion…

Highlights The macro environment remains positive for risk assets. Nonetheless, the shadow of the '87 stock market crash is a reminder that major market corrections can occur even when the earnings and economic growth backdrop is…

Highlights Our out-of-consensus call on oil prices - Brent and WTI are expected to trade to $65 and $63/bbl, respectively, next year - has the most upside risk from unplanned production outages in Iraq and Venezuela. The potential for…

Highlights Global "Low-flation" Vs. Oil Reflation: Investors who believe that inflation is dead will be surprised by the breakout of global oil prices in 2018 toward the mid-$60 level anticipated by our commodity strategists…

Highlights The uptick in world oil demand in the wake of a strengthening global upturn - the first since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) - coupled with continued production discipline by OPEC 2.0, will accelerate inventory draws, and…

Highlights Oil Breakout: Bond markets have been slow to discount the impact of higher oil prices on global inflation, which should lead to steeper yield curves and additional increases in inflation expectations. Trump Trade: The…

Highlights Oil prices have hit our target, but more upside is likely. President Trump's tax proposal has arrived and the Trump trades have responded. Surging M&A activity is not a sign of a market top. The supports are all…

Yesterday, we updated our long materials/short utilities pair trade, initiated on August 21, which has delivered much faster than anticipated. However, it is behind our long U.S. energy stocks/short global gold miners, initiated on…