Energy services shares have pulled back as oil prices have marked time over the last few weeks, but in the background, the conditions to sustain a rally are falling into place. The growth in total OECD oil stocks has rolled over…
Highlights Crude-oil fundamentals stand out among commodities because of the active efforts by critical producers to rein in supply since the end of last year. This can be seen in even-higher compliance with the production accord - a…
Highlights Global manufacturing inventories are low but this does not guarantee higher share prices for global cyclical stocks. If an increase in inventories is accompanied by strengthening final demand, it will be very bullish for the…
Highlights We expect the high level of compliance with the OPEC - non-OPEC production agreement engineered by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia will endure, leading to significant reductions in global oil inventories this year…
Highlights Weekly swings in U.S. inventories notwithstanding, we believe global storage is on track to draw ~ 10% by early- to mid-3Q17, which will have achieved the goal of the OPEC - Russia production Agreement negotiated late last…
Highlights The evolution of U.S. tax policy - chiefly the border-adjustment tax (BAT) proposed by House Republicans - will preoccupy commodity markets for the balance of the year. Our House view gives 50-50 odds to the passage of a BAT,…
Highlights China's monetary and fiscal policy in 2017 will likely remain accommodative, in order to achieve the goal of an average 6.5% GDP growth over the next five years. China's policies related to its property market will…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A battle between tighter monetary conditions and the anticipation of fiscal largesse will be a dominant market theme this year. Our high-conviction equity allocation calls do not require making a major…