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Equities

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2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Don't Bet On A Durable Economic Rebound In China
The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high of 50.7 and beating…
Daily Insights
Global Equity Breadth Rolls Off Its Peak
It’s no secret that a handful of mega caps have been driving markets in 2023, masking a somewhat lackluster year for equities. In fact, on an equal-weighted basis, markets gave up nearly all their YTD gains by the end of October. However, the latest rally has…
Daily Insights
November In Review
Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the strong performance of US investment…
Daily Insights
The Recession That Never Came?
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Tight Policy Will Eventually Trigger Recession

Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Italy And Spain Are Outperforming In 2023
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35.3% year-to-date surge stands out among…
Daily Insights
Overweight KOSPI Within An EM Equity Portfolio
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service recommends overweighting Korea within an EM equity portfolio. Korean equity valuations are neutral in absolute and relative terms. Hence, other factors rather than valuations will be the major drivers of…
Daily Insights
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Korea: On The Front Lines Of The Global Cycle

The recent increase in Korean exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle rebound within a cyclical downtrend. Korea’s households and enterprises are among the most indebted globally, and their debt service ratio is among the highest in the world. Korea’s 10-year bond yields have peaked. We discuss opportunities in Korean stocks as well as in fixed income and currency markets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Ziyuan Huang, Arthur Budaghyan
The Last Hurrah?
Q3 US real GDP was revised higher in the second estimate that was released on Wednesday. The 5.2% q/q annualized increase beat expectations of a more muted upwards revision to 5.0% q/q from the advance estimate of 4.9% q/q. In particular, updates to…
Daily Insights

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