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Equities

US Small Businesses Are Concerned
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results…
Daily Insights
ZEW Investor Sentiment Rebounds
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment continues to send an optimistic signal. German sentiment jumped from -1.1 to +9.8 in November – its highest level since March and beating expectations of a smaller improvement to 5.0. Similarly, expectations for the Euro…
Daily Insights
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Clarity (A GeoRisk Update)

Amid a range of geopolitical narratives, what matters is that the US strategy of economic engagement with its rivals is failing, giving rise to a new strategy of containment that will reinforce the secular rise in geopolitical risk. Our market-based quantitative indicators of geopolitical risk are set to rise in the coming year.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
Weak Chinese Private Sector Loan Demand In October
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12 trillion. Similarly, loans extended by banks fell…
Daily Insights
Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…
Daily Insights
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Waiting For The Recession

European markets have room to rebound in the coming weeks, however, a recession looms. What are the lessons from history that investors can use to position themselves under these conditions?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Recap Of Q3 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth for 2024 will move lower than currently projected - a negative for equities. This Santa Claus rally is unlikely to be the start of a new bull market.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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An Investors' Guide To The 2023 Dutch Snap Election

The Netherlands has a healthier and more stable economy and demography than its European peers. Investors should stay overweight developed European equities, including Dutch equities, relative to emerging European equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
A Return To Positive Earnings Growth In Q3
The Q3 earnings season is nearing its end. By Friday, 92% of S&P 500 companies had already reported and thus far the results are positive. According to FactSet, the S&P 500's 4.1% y/y blended earnings growth rate is the first earnings expansion since…
Daily Insights
Evolving Factor Landscape
Analyzing the long/short performance of the Equity Analyzer Composite Factors gives insight into both what has been driving US large cap markets and how those drivers have evolved over the course of the year. The results presented in the table above were…
Daily Insights

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