BCA’s Global Asset Allocation strategists find that international diversification outperforms home bias in both bonds and equities, especially when FX risk is hedged. Unhedged foreign bonds have consistently underperformed domestic…
US equity investors should heed warning signals from US corporate bond yields. There are early red flags for EM share prices. Global trade will shrink in H2 2025. China’s economic tailwinds from H1 2025 – fiscal and export…
The S&P 500 sits near all-time highs, but sentiment and positioning suggest euphoria has not driven this rally. Prices are elevated, yet the SKEW/VIX ratio sits at 8.3, or its 67th percentile. While not at extreme levels…
Equities have retraced sharply from Liberation Day lows, but renewed policy risk and mispriced volatility keep us tactically cautious. The Trump administration softened its trade stance as equities neared bear market territory in…
BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists remain negative on EM stocks in absolute terms but recommend a neutral weighting within global equity portfolios. Economic growth does not reliably translate into earnings per share or shareholder…
European equities have recently lagged the S&P 500, with short-term risks building despite a constructive long-term outlook. After reaching all-time highs in February, the EURO STOXX 50 began to stall as US markets sold off on…
We still believe a recession looms, but it has yet to rear its ugly head. We continue to recommend investors position defensively, but we will change tack if clear signs of a recession don’t emerge soon.
