Persistent deflation and constrained policy options support a defensive stance on China, favoring bonds and high-dividend equities. Consumer prices were roughly flat in June, rising just 0.1% y/y after a 0.1% decline in May. Producer…
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the…
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and…
Deteriorating macro momentum supports a defensive asset allocation stance as hard data deteriorates. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs confirmed that growth is slowing and price pressures are easing from a high level.…
Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y…
Our European Investment strategists upgrade small caps to maximum overweight, citing improving margins, supportive macro trends, and attractive valuations. They expect small caps to continue outperforming large caps over the next 12…
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within…
This week our three screeners identify stocks that are likely to keep delivering deliver earnings surprises in the US, European small caps that are high quality and mean reverting, and Japanese large caps picks across GICS 1 sectors…
Earnings growth should continue to support equity performance this year. However, after blockbuster gains, some profit-taking is likely. We recommend booking profits and increasing exposure to Defensives.