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Equities

US GDO Growth Accelerates In Q2
US Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, only slightly above Q1 growth of 2.0%. Although consumption was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, business spending grew at a slower pace than initially reported…
Daily Insights
US LEI: Signal Or Noise?
Consensus expectations for the US economy were bleak at the start of the year. In hindsight, this pessimism was excessive: real GDP expanded in the first two quarters of the year (see Country Focus). Similarly, the US Conference Board’s Coincident Economic…
Daily Insights
US Small Caps: Will The Rally Be Reignited?
After having sold off in the first five months of the year, the performance of small-cap stocks improved in June and July with the S&P 600 index gaining 13.9% in those two months. A broadening of the US equity rally – which earlier in the year was…
Daily Insights
French Luxuries Trump US Technology

The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US tech, it is French luxuries. No other sector can compare with French luxuries’ massive and sustained pricing power. The risk for French luxuries is not a China slowdown, the risk is that the structural increase in super-wealth comes to an end. If anything though, the coming disruption from generative AI will boost super-wealth. Ironically therefore, the best investment play on generative AI might be French luxuries.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Signs Of Slowdown: Eurozone Services Sector
The Eurozone's economy remains soft. Yesterday we highlighted that M3 money supply fell by 0.4% y/y in July, a rate unseen since 2010. This decline was driven by a slowdown in private sector bank lending, which confirms broad economic weakness. Notably, the…
Daily Insights
Return Assumptions 2023 Edition
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service updated its long-term return assumptions for a wide range of public and private assets. While still lower than the historical returns, the team’s projected returns are slightly higher than…
Daily Insights
BRICS+ And Blocs

Investors should underweight global equities and risk assets; overweight US stocks relative to global; and overweight defensive sectors versus cyclicals.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Return Assumptions 2023 Edition – A Bit Higher For Bonds, A Bit Lower For Equities

A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Falling Corporate Profits Will Weigh On Chinese Stocks
The ongoing profit contraction among Chinese industrial firms underscores that deflationary headwinds dominate the domestic economy. Although the annual pace of decline of industrial profits slowed from 8.3% y/y in June to 6.7% y/y in July (a 15.5% y/y drop…
Daily Insights
US Stocks Can Suffer From Politics And Elections
With the US presidential election approaching, our US political strategists are warning investors that stock markets are not immune to politics and geopolitics. Our colleagues have shown that out of 28 bear markets since the Civil War, 17 of them have…
Daily Insights

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