Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Equities

So Much For Détente?

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
Turkey: Time To Go In?

Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Risky Asset Prices, A Looming Recession, And The Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is typically a counter-cyclical currency. As shown in the chart above, the correlation between global stock prices and the yen is usually negative. However, over the past year, the yen’s correlation with risky asset prices has shifted…
Daily Insights
Will Energy Stocks Continue Underperforming?
For the most part, the US equity rally has been rather narrow this year – concentrated among stocks that investors perceive will be the key winners of recent AI developments. In the first five months of the year, only three S&P 500 sectors were in the…
Daily Insights
Watch Interest Rates, Not The Balance Sheet
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, when the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies are sending opposite signals, listen to interest rates. There seems to be some worry among investors that the coming increase in Treasury cash…
Daily Insights
Upgrading Japanese Stocks To Neutral
Japanese equities have been outperforming their global peers in recent months. Their 8.5% rally so far in Q2 exceeds the MSCI’s All Country World Index’s 5.6% gain over this period. Japan has not experienced the same inflationary overshoot plaguing most…
Daily Insights
Real Earnings Growth Across Various Inflation Regimes
High levels of inflation distort cross-period comparisons of both earnings and sales and mask real earnings growth rates. Last year is a case in point: While in nominal terms, earnings (including Energy) have been contracting for only two quarters, in real…
Daily Insights
China: Flirting With Deflation

China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity trap. Deflation is bullish for government bonds, but negative for equity prices. Chinese share prices will continue to decline.

China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Is The S&P 500 Expensive, Enough?
Is The S&P 500 Expensive, Enough? …
Daily Insights
Head Fake Or Real Deal Webcast: Poll Results And Client Questions

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics