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Equities

Will UK Equities Continue Underperforming?
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of…
Daily Insights
Sector Composition Has Been A Tailwind For US Stocks
US stocks have outperformed their global peers on a year-to-date basis. The MSCI US index’s 7.5% gain since January 18 eclipses the ACW index’s 3.1% increase. This trend has recently become even more pronounced: while the US index is up 1.5% since the end of…
Daily Insights
The AI Craze: Lessons From The Dotcom Boom

The AI craze could further lift stock prices, boost capex, and delay the onset of the next recession. Looking further out, reaping the profit windfall from AI may take longer than many investors expect.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
May In Review
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate, the resurfacing of…
Daily Insights
The Equity Bear Market Is Not Over
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service continues to recommend an overweight on government bonds, neutral on cash, and underweight on equities and credit. Market technicals do not suggest this is a robust broad-based equity rally. The US stock…
Daily Insights
Is China In A Liquidity Trap?

Symptoms of a liquidity trap for Chinese households are appearing. Our proprietary indicators for the marginal propensity to spend among households and enterprises continue falling. There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. Authorities will be slow to introduce large stimulus. Hence, China-related financial markets are set to fall further.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Monthly Portfolio Update: Where Could We Be Wrong?

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Chinese PMIs Signal Softening Economic Momentum
Chinese economic data releases continue to disappoint. Wednesday’s NBS PMI release showed the composite PMI dropped from 54.4 to 52.9 in May – the lowest since January. Importantly, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell deeper in contraction territory from…
Daily Insights
Does Labor Market Resilience Necessitate Fed Hawkishness?
The JOLTS survey for April shows job openings unexpectedly rising from an upwardly revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million – above expectations of a decline to 9.4 million. The job openings rate inched up to 6.1% from 5.9% while the ratio of job openings to…
Daily Insights
A Word On French Banks
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service French banks are better positioned to weather current headwinds than their European peers. The team sees limited risks to the French banking sector from the recent banking turmoil. French…
Daily Insights

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