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Equities

Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists remain positioned for a downturn. Private Equity is most threatened as tariffs intensify existing recession risks.  Buyout strategies face stress from record-low distributions and rising LP-GP friction.…

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Gold mining stocks, Japanese Staples, and Implicit Dividend Yield. 

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus, it indicates they are planning something different, as China will encounter economic destabilization. The likelihood of a hybrid military pressure on Taiwan will rise.

MF MF …
Our European strategists recommend staying defensive in the near term. Favor bonds over equities and defensives over cyclicals, as President Trump’s tariffs are set to push the Eurozone into recession by mid-2025. Industrial production, capital spending, and…
CAF CAF …

Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.

Sell The Rip? Sell The Rip? …