The belief that net portfolio outflows out of the US will fuel EM assets is a common but misguided narrative. If the US starts experiencing net capital outflows, it would need to run a current account surplus. A shift in the US…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
French markets woke up Monday to fresh political turmoil, with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigning just 27 days into office, marking the shortest tenure in modern French history. The CAC 40 dropped over 2%, the euro slid 0.7%…
The economy remains resilient despite a softening labor market. As the economy shifts from labor toward capital, we may be in the early stages of a “jobless boom.” Our bull case for equities rests on strong earnings growth,…
In this update, we apply our Macro Surprises framework to equities for the first time. Overall, the message is broadly consistent with our current equity views: Investors should favor Eurozone equities and continue to overweight…
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio underperformed its benchmark through September, returning 3.01%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 3.91%. However, our US High Quality SMID (USHQ SMID) portfolio continues to show strength, with…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see 50% odds of a shutdown that lasts beyond three weeks. Investors continue to wonder whether the US federal government shutdown will last long enough, or involve large enough layoffs, to affect…
The October 1 partial US government shutdown risks denting near-term GDP and sentiment but should present a buying opportunity if it triggers equity weakness. The US federal government partly shutdown on October 1 after the…
The CNY/USD has room to appreciate both cyclically and structurally, while nominal yields on China’s long-duration government bonds are set to fall. This combination supports Chinese equities.
President Trump said a partial federal government shutdown is "probably likely" late in the afternoon on September 30. Senators have until midnight to pass a continuing resolution already passed by the House that would keep the…