Equities

The equity bull market is getting long in the tooth. Bonds should perform well once economic growth begins to slow. The dollar will strengthen over the coming months before resuming its downtrend. While crude has likely found a near-term floor, we favor metals over energy in the long run.

In this screener report, we explore opportunities in Japanese Non-TMT equities, El Niño hedges, and US consumer-facing equities.

The economy has shifted into Expansion, earnings growth is broader and stronger than we expected, and we are raising our 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 on $330 of EPS. However, we are also cutting our year-end multiple to 24.5. From here, returns will need to come from earnings growth, not multiple expansion.

AI is transformative, yet tech stocks may not produce positive returns. Market cycles have not disappeared. Greed and fear will still produce large share price fluctuations. Meanwhile, US inflation is the key near-term risk. Global non-tech capex aspirations also look overstated.

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.

We have long argued, on a case-by-case basis, that countries willing to play the superpowers against each other win in a multipolar world. The logic is intuitive, and in this report, we measure it systematically.