Equities

The model continues to keep its largest overweight in U.S. equities. Directionally, Japan's underweight is slightly reduced for a second month (albeit by only 13 basis points).

For the month of June, the model performed in line with both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of July, the model is increasing its risk exposure.

Special Report

This <i>Special Report</i> looks at global equity valuations. The conclusion is that although most equity markets are far from cheap, some compelling investment opportunities do exist.

Financial stocks around the world have plunged, with U.S. relative performance on the cusp of setting new cyclical relative performance lows. While the sector is well capitalized and has low balance sheet risk, our negative stance is predicated on income statement concerns. Brexit represents another deflationary shock in a world struggling to generate trend growth. To the extent that faltering economic confidence further undermines business activity and sends capital to the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar, it amounts to a tightening in global financial conditions. Under these conditions, downward pressure on the interest rate structure will persist (second panel), robbing the financial sector of a much needed source of income. Thus, while the financial sector appears 'cheap', it is still too soon to consider bottom fishing, at least until deflationary pressures subside. We reiterate our below-benchmark position. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5FINL.

While the economic fallout from Brexit is likely to play out over a long horizon as the U.K.'s exit is negotiated, this political event will have repercussions for U.S. equity markets in the interim. For instance, defensive sectors have surged, in relative performance terms. Since the financial crisis, consumers' propensity to save has steadily climbed. That has coincided with increased traffic at non-cyclical retail stores, to the extent that their sales have largely outpaced overall retail sales in recent years, which is unusual during an economic expansion. Policy and political uncertainty are likely to fuel this trend. Thus, the consumer staples sector should continue to enjoy an upward re-rating in relative forward earnings estimates. Both valuations and technical conditions are below previous overbought extremes, underscoring that there are few barriers to ongoing stealth outperformance. We reiterate our overweight position. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CONS.

Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.

The Brexit drama has moved from the realms of psephology into the realms of game theory. How will the game play out? And how will the economy and financial markets react?

Special Report

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

Special Report

The Russo-Chinese relationship got a diplomatic boost this week, but can China provide Russia with the capital it needs to boost productivity meaningfully?