Equities

It is the perfect time to add protection, given the 13% rally in stocks over the past six weeks and the current steepness of the VIX term-structure.

There are a number of warning signs that the global and EM equity bounce is unsustainable. The latest episode of housing recovery in China will prove temporary due to still-large imbalances. Overweight Indian stocks: the credit cycle in India is less vulnerable compared to other EMs. However, the outlook for Indian equities in absolute terms is not bullish.

While recent financial stress relief has triggered a short covering rally in deep cyclical sectors, this will only be sustainable if macro forces shift in support of profit outperformance. However, our cyclical vs. defensive macro drivers have not yet confirmed the glimmers of light offered by financial variables. Global purchasing manager surveys at both the manufacturing and services levels are still sinking, with many in recessionary territory. While there are pockets of strength, in aggregate, manufacturing is very weak. Global trade is still extremely weak. The Baltic Dry index is hitting new lows, and export growth in key manufacturing regions such as Taiwan, Korea and China is contracting at a double-digit rate. The takeaway from ongoing weakness in trade is that EM currencies have not weakened enough to allow exports to stabilize their growth prospects, likely because developed countries are not spending their low oil price dividend. Our Emerging Asian LEI has failed to make any strides despite the dramatic pullback in their currencies. That dynamic reflects both weak export markets and monetary policy constraints driven by fears of capital flight. That is unnerving, because it means that the necessary deleveraging has not been allowed to occur. These factors will continue to constrain cyclical sector profits, especially relative to defensives, arguing for maintaining a defensive portfolio bias. Please see yesterday's Special Report for more details.

Renewed strength in the U.S. equity market sponsored by another round of global monetary easing has revived the debate about whether it is finally time to transition out of our alpha-generating defensive portfolio strategy. A number of strategists and media outlets have championed the view that yield proxies and non-cyclical sectors are expensive, and no longer offer an attractive reward/risk trade-off, particularly within the context of the recent easing in credit spreads, commodity price relief and the dip in the U.S. dollar. However, it is crucial to distinguish between absolute and relative measures when analyzing valuations. In absolute terms, nearly every sector and group is expensive, given that the broad market is trading at historically rich multiples. Our metrics do not support the notion that defensive sector outperformance has overly skewed relative valuations. Defensive sector strength has been almost entirely earnings driven (top panel), as measured by the steady upward march in relative forward earnings estimates. Our relative valuation gauge for defensives is barely above neutral despite multiyear outperformance. At the same time, cyclical sectors have experienced a steady decline in relative forward profit estimates, which has kept our valuation gauge close to neutral when the energy sector is excluded. The implication is that forecasting a cyclical sector comeback based on a valuation basis could lead investors down the wrong path. Instead, the lack of a major valuation anomaly means that relative performance should continue to be dictated by relative profit trends, please see the next Insight.

The RMB has moderated considerably since mid-last year, which should lead to improved capacity utilization and easing PPI deflation. There is a strengthening case for an upswing in China's profit cycle, driven by falling interest rates and a weaker RMB, while investors are ill-prepared for any positive earnings surprises.

Special Report

Renewed strength in the U.S. equity market sponsored by another round of global monetary easing has revived the debate about whether it is finally time to transition out of our <i>alpha</i>-generating defensive portfolio strategy. This <i>Special Report</i> examines the critical factors shaping this investment decision.

Special Report

The old cyclical market axiom that "nothing cures low prices like low prices" has never held
truer than in today's oil market.

The rally in risk assets could persist. Dollar and oil moves are not yet exhausted. But valuations and poor earnings quality warrant a cautious approach.

For the month of March, the model outperformed both global and U.S. equities in U.S. dollar terms. For April, the model has further pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into cash. While Europe remains the largest equity overweight, there was a modest recalibration to defensive markets such as the U.S. and Switzerland. The allocation to EM was also nudged up a bit, on momentum and valuation grounds. In the fixed-income space, the model is sticking with U.S., Italian and Spanish paper.

Special Report

There is little evidence suggesting that declining productivity growth in recent years has resulted from measurement error. Businesses have plucked many of the low-hanging fruits made possible by the IT revolution, while cyclical factors stemming from the Great Recession have also weighed on productivity. Low productivity growth tends to be deflationary in the short run, but inflationary longer-term. For now, this is good news for bonds, but is likely to become bad news by decade-end.