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Will China's Push For Urban Migration Work?

China's cyclical and structural headwinds will likely undermine Beijing’s initiative to accelerate urban migration over the next five years.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
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Failed Breakouts Warn Of Bear Market Ahead

The prices of multiple financial assets have failed to break above their technical resistances. When this occurs, a breakdown ensues. In brief, global risk assets remain vulnerable. We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from neutral to overweight and offshore ones from underweight to neutral within EM and global equity portfolios.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Sneezes, ROW Will Catch A Cold
US economic news has stolen the spotlight in the past several days but economic developments in the rest of the world have also been uninspiring. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI dipped into contraction territory in July, deteriorating from 50.8 to 49.7…
Daily Insights
Resist The Urge To Buy The Dip
The risk-off mood that dominated markets on Thursday, Friday and the early stages of Monday’s trading amid dismal payrolls, tech earnings and manufacturing PMIs seems to have dissipated for the time being. The positive signal from July’s ISM services PMI (see…
Daily Insights
Consumers Grow Pessimistic About Main Street But Not Wall Street
The latest Conference Board measure of consumer confidence suggested that consumers were increasingly downbeat about current economic conditions. Notably, their fading optimism about labor market conditions drove the jobs-plentiful-minus-hard-to-get measure…
Daily Insights
The Case For Overweighting The US, Even Now
August’s selloff has featured a rotation out of Big Tech. The Nasdaq shed 8% across Thursday, Friday, and Monday, led by concentrated selling among several Mega caps. Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft and Amazon shed 14%, 14%, 6% and 14% over the last three sessions,…
Daily Insights
The Stock-Bond Correlation Breaks Down When Inflation Runs High
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, while the market action of the past few weeks is pointing to a return to a negative stock-bond correlation, more prints will be needed to confirm things are getting back to normal. The post-COVID…
Daily Insights
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The Fly In The Soft Landing Ointment

Mounting evidence that the labor market is on its way to cracking checked two more boxes on our checklist, driving us to tactically downgrade equities to underweight while upgrading fixed income to overweight. Our tactical and cyclical (6-12 months) views are now aligned as our conviction that a recession will begin before year-end has increased.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
ISM Manufacturing PMI’s July Contraction Underscores Further Weakness
The ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed in July. The headline index declined at a faster pace, from 48.5 to 46.8, disappointing expectations and extending a four-month contraction streak. Details were uninspiring. New orders dipped to 47.4 from 49.3,…
Daily Insights
Domestic And Global Implications Of Sweden’s Dismal PMI
Sweden’s manufacturing PMI started contracting in July, plummeting from 53 to 49.2, falling far short of expectations that growth would broaden. Weakness was broad-based. Notably, new orders and new export orders plunged a whopping 15.1 and 8.7 points in…
Daily Insights

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