Equities
Second quarter earnings season began for US public companies on Friday as JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported their results before the open. (BAC, the other commercial bank SIFI (systemically important financial institution), reports…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally's persistence, however, will depend…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, extremely disappointing corporate profit growth has been the main reason for EM's poor equity performance in absolute terms and massive underperformance relative to the US/DM. EM earnings per…
The failure of EM stock prices to rally over the past 13 years is rooted in their companies’ inability to grow their profits. Even though EM equities appear cheap based on their cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, there has been a regime change in EM corporate profitability. Therefore, the CAPE model should not be used to value EM stocks now.
As highlighted in Wednesday’s edition of BCA Live & Unfiltered, the Chinese economy and its financial markets face several daunting challenges. Its demographic outlook is unfavorable, with a low birthrate stifling population growth; the grim math of…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp underperformance of the French stock market over political uncertainty is irrational, given the CAC 40’s limited exposure to French domestic economics and politics. A third of the CAC 40’s market…
Our US Investment strategists define excess savings as the difference between what households saved beginning in March 2020 and what they might have saved had the pandemic not occurred. To estimate the latter, they assumed that disposable income would have…
Our colleagues from the Emerging Markets Strategy team argue that investors should brace for a significant correction in Indian stocks in the coming months. They posit that the pillar of Indian corporations' sustained profit growth — surging revenues — is…
Our US Investment Strategy colleagues have kept a close eye on excess savings and their disposition since the CARES Act funds began to flow in the spring of 2020. Their conviction that the consensus failed to recognize the consumption potential inherent in…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, post-GFC US equity outperformance can be attributed to a perfect storm of advantageous policies and a human capital edge. The topic of American exceptionalism is hotly debated in the wake of the…