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Equities

French Elections Provide Tactical Opportunity For Eurozone Stocks
Eurozone equities sold off 7% from their June 6 highs, according to MSCI indices. The surprise French legislative elections and renewed fears of populism and European Union exits are spooking investors. Yet, our European Investment strategists argued that…
Daily Insights
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Too Late To Sell France?

European assets are selling off as investors panic about the upcoming French election. Is this panic justified, and if so, for how long?

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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South Africa: After Hegemony

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
China's Credit Growth Continues To Underwhelm
Chinese new loans grew from CNY 10.2 tr to CNY 11.1tr in May, disappointing expectations of CNY 11.3tr. Year-to-date aggregate financing also came short of anticipations, growing from CNY 12.7tr to CNY 14.8tr. Notably, the contraction in M1 worsened from 1.4%…
Daily Insights
Consumer Sentiment Deteriorates Despite Easing Price Pressures
The preliminary University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in June to 65.6 from 69.1, against expectations of improving morale. Consumers’ assessments of current conditions declined by a larger margin than expectations for the…
Daily Insights
Making Money In The Late Phases Of An Economic Expansion
We continue to expect a recession by early 2025 but assign non-trivial odds to growth surprising to the upside until then. Our Global Investment Strategy team thus recommends investors adopt a barbell equity strategy as a hedge for the second half of 2024,…
Daily Insights
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Missing Older Workers Give The Fed A Lingering Headache

1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment implications. Plus: the China and Japan rallies are exhausted.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Investor Sentiment Turns Positive In The Eurozone
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month highs of 10 and -9, respectively.…
Daily Insights
Fade The Signal From The NFIB Survey
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism (SBO) Index came in at 90.5 in May, above expectations that it would remain flat at 89.7. Despite the upside surprise, the Russell 2000 index closed down 40 basis points on Tuesday while the S&P 500 gained 30 bps to…
Daily Insights
Underweight TSX Despite Commodity, Currency And Valuation Tailwinds
A decade of Canadian equity underperformance has led to a historical discount relative to the S&P 500. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the TSX while the US stock market…
Daily Insights

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