Hot July inflation does little to alter Switzerland’s near-term deflationary outlook, as soft data and trade risks support a defensive stance and preference for bonds over equities. CPI ticked up to 0.2% y/y from 0.1%, with core…
A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple throughout the Korean economy. We are downgrading the KOSPI from overweight to neutral and reiterating a long position in 10-year domestic bonds, currency unhedged.
The Q2 reporting season underscores the resilience of corporate earnings, supporting our bullish outlook for equities, an outlook further bolstered by expectations of fiscal and monetary easing. However, for now, we are booking…
This week our three screeners identify: Broader and more accessible tech-driven equities, US equities exposed to cryptocurrencies, and doubling-down on top-decile stocks.
AI capex has emerged as the dominant driver of US growth in 2025, reshaping both macro dynamics and equity strategy. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Strategist for Global Asset Allocation.Over the first half of…
The July employment report revealed large downward revisions and slowing payroll growth, reinforcing our defensive stance. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 73k, and prior months were revised down by 258k, bringing the 3-month average to…
A high US tariff and the lingering uncertainties on the US-India trade deal will hurt investors sentiment. This and contracting corporate profits will push share prices lower. Stay underweight Indian stocks.
Over the first half of 2025, AI capex outpaced both consumption and all other investments in its contribution to US growth. Like all other capex cycles this one will end in tears. However, the indicators we track suggest that AI…
MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.
Microsoft has gone up in a worryingly near-perfect straight line with dimension 1.098. Take August off before making a big commitment to stocks. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go long USD/HUF.