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Equities

This week our screeners explore offshore Chinese internet stocks, US Healthcare equities, and sectoral opportunities in the Canadian bourse.    

Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the…

The AI capex boom is having a measurable impact on the economy but, so far, it is more muted than often cited.

Despite talk of September seasonality, the S&P 500 has not pulled back, and the pain trade remains higher. The sell-off many expected failed to materialize. Positioning is not stretched, and in an environment where dip-buying remains instantaneous, any…
Low rates volatility has been a key tailwind for equities, but the fragile equilibrium leaves markets exposed to AI sentiment and inflation risks. Rates volatility, measured by the MOVE index, has drifted to multi-year lows and sits below its 20th percentile…
Our US Political Strategists give a one-third probability of a federal government shutdown before November. The odds could increase after that. But the market impacts are limited. The source of the disagreement is the enhanced subsidy for health care under…
European sentiment indicators weakened again in August and September, reinforcing tactical US outperformance. While the September flash consumer confidence print beat expectations, it is still sluggish. Surveys such as Sentix and ZEW, both leading indicators…

According to our latest client poll, most respondents are optimistic about the Generative AI's potential. Investors remain divided on whether current equity valuations reflect a bubble. Economic concerns continue to center on bond yields and the risk of stagflation, while relatively few clients anticipate a recession. In terms of portfolio positioning, an overweight in Technology received the strongest endorsement.

We are turning more constructive on Chinese internet stocks after several years of caution. We recommend going long offshore internet equities in absolute terms and upgrading MSCI China to overweight in a global equity portfolio.

Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the currency risk vis-à-vis the euro.