Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Rises During Recessions At 106.5, the dollar DXY index is certainly pricing in a recession deeper than during the Covid-19 crisis.…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The TIPS Market Foresees A Sharp Deceleration In Inflation TIPS breakevens are pointing to a rapid decline in US inflation over the next two…
Executive Summary Don’t Try Catching Falling Euros The euro is inexorably moving toward parity. However, many positives could still save EUR/USD, a cheap currency that will benefit if the fears of a global recession recede…
Executive Summary The Dollar And Volatility The dollar continues to be bid, as volatility rises. The MOVE volatility index is making fresh cycle highs and has pushed the DXY index above our stop level of 107 (Feature Chart…
Executive Summary Economic growth is now a casualty, and not a driver, of monetary policy choices. Inflation is dictating where central banks are taking interest rates. Our baseline view remains that core US inflation will…
Executive Summary ECB & Inflation: Whatever It Takes? Inflation is the European Central Bank’s single focus. This single-mindedness heightens the risks to Euro Area growth, especially because wider peripheral…
Executive Summary Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US? The dollar has likely peaked in the near term. An unwinding of speculative bets, based on structurally higher inflation in the US, is the key driver (Feature Chart…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chinese Stocks Are Relatively Cheap The Chinese economy faces a trifecta of economic woes: 1) The threat of renewed Covid lockdowns; 2)…
Executive Summary Villains Still Lurking European assets and the euro already discount a significant worsening of Europe’s economic outlook. If the global economic situation were to stabilize, then European assets…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Likes Volatility Uncertainty about Fed policy has supercharged volatility in bond markets, and correspondingly, USD demand (Feature…