Executive Summary For the Fed, maintaining its credibility with a long sequence of rate hikes that does not crash the economy, real estate market, and stock market is akin to the ‘Hail Mary’ move of (American) football.…

Executive Summary No Contagion Yet  The risk of contagion into other FX pairs from the collapse of the RUB remains contained but is rising. The main transmission mechanism will be a global rush into dollars, should the…

Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…

Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…

Executive Summary The Euro And Relative Growth  The euro is likely to appreciate over the course of 2022. But the path will be volatile, with a retest of recent EUR/USD lows within the central band of possible outcomes. Our…

BCA Research is proud to announce a new feature to help clients get the most out of our research: an Executive Summary cover page on each of the BCA Research Reports. We created these summaries to help you quickly capture the main points…

Highlights The most important question is whether the Fed will hike interest rates by more than what is currently discounted in markets, or less. More hikes will trigger a set of cascading reactions. US bond yields will initially jump…

Highlights US economic data remains robust, but economic surprises are rolling over relative to other G10 countries. Meanwhile, the Fed is turning a tad more hawkish, which is positive for the greenback in the short term but could hurt…

  We have entered a new phase of the cycle, with central banks in most developed markets turning more hawkish (the Bank of England surprisingly hiking in December, and the Fed signaling three rate hikes for 2022). How much does…

Dear Client, Thank you for your continued readership and support this year. This is the last European Investment Strategy report for 2021. In this piece, we review ten charts covering important aspects of the European economy and…