This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing…
The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key…
Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means…
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
The February Ifo Business Climate index for Germany slightly missed estimates, staying unchanged from 85.2 in January. While respondents’ assessment of the current situation weakened, expectations rebounded to 85.4 from 84.3. …
Eurozone banks have quietly outpaced the Magnificent 7—can they keep winning? With strong balance sheets, rising profitability, and structural tailwinds, European lenders still offer value despite short-term risks. Meanwhile, German…
A nascent theme in the latest data is the broad improvement in European sentiment. The February Sentix and ZEW surveys both improved, and flash estimates for European consumer confidence beat estimates, ticking up to -13.6%.…
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank…
While geopolitics captured the latest headlines, Eurozone economic surprises have turned positive, while those in the US are on the verge of turning negative. Global economic surprises hinge on expectations and…