Stay long September 2026 Euribor futures and overweight UK gilts, as Europe could see reflationary cuts while the UK slowdown argues for deeper easing. The ECB left rates unchanged at 2% in a routine meeting and revised its growth…
Remain tactically cautious on European assets as sentiment stays mixed and leading indicators show no acceleration. Euro area sentiment data for December continued to send conflicting signals. The Sentix index slightly beat…
Maintain an underweight in industrial commodities as flash PMIs confirm weak global growth momentum. December flash PMIs for developed markets pointed to subdued activity. The US composite slowed to 53 from 54.2, a six-month low,…
Europe’s equity outperformance is real, and even stronger once adjusted for FX. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, Chief European Investment Strategist. Banks and defense stocks (not tech and communication services…
Favor US assets over European ones as weak Eurozone momentum and soft inflation keep tactical pressure on EUR. November Eurozone inflation came in slightly above estimates, with headline HICP at 2.2% y/y versus 2.1% in October and…
The November Ifo survey disappointed, highlighting weakening expectations for Germany and limited near-term upside for European growth. The Business Climate Index fell to 88.1 from 88.4, driven by expectations dropping to 90.6 from…
November flash PMIs confirmed sluggish global momentum, reinforcing a defensive stance with tactical support for the USD. The US composite PMI rose to 54.8, driven by stronger services but weaker manufacturing. The Euro area showed a…
Reports of a potential US–Russia peace proposal revived speculation about a ceasefire, creating short-term downside risks for European defense equities. The 28-point framework, led by Trump’s negotiator, signals that both sides are…
European sentiment remains mixed, with growth momentum failing to pick up despite brighter long-term prospects. Economic surprises have improved since mid-October, but tight financial conditions, driven by a strong euro and higher…
Our European strategists turn overweight Swedish equities and initiate a short NOK/SEK position as Nordic central banks pause but their economies diverge. Sweden’s recovery and stable inflation allow the Riksbank to join the “easing-…