Euro Area
Our GeoMacro and European strategists highlight Spain’s equity and bond outperformance as fundamentally driven, supported by improving balance sheets, stronger profitability, and repeated earnings upgrades. Financials have led the equity rally, which reflects…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists maintain an above-benchmark duration stance as labor market risks continue to support downside yield potential, even as the global easing cycle winds down. With policy normalization largely complete, monetary policy is…
Remain tactically cautious on European assets as persistently weak sentiment keeps growth momentum subdued. European economic sentiment remains soft with little sign of acceleration. The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index missed expectations in…
Stay long September 2026 Euribor futures and overweight UK gilts, as Europe could see reflationary cuts while the UK slowdown argues for deeper easing. The ECB left rates unchanged at 2% in a routine meeting and revised its growth and inflation forecasts…
Remain tactically cautious on European assets as sentiment stays mixed and leading indicators show no acceleration. Euro area sentiment data for December continued to send conflicting signals. The Sentix index slightly beat expectations, improving to -6.2…
Maintain an underweight in industrial commodities as flash PMIs confirm weak global growth momentum. December flash PMIs for developed markets pointed to subdued activity. The US composite slowed to 53 from 54.2, a six-month low, with both manufacturing and…
Europe’s equity outperformance is real, and even stronger once adjusted for FX. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, Chief European Investment Strategist. Banks and defense stocks (not tech and communication services) have powered Europe’s…
Favor US assets over European ones as weak Eurozone momentum and soft inflation keep tactical pressure on EUR. November Eurozone inflation came in slightly above estimates, with headline HICP at 2.2% y/y versus 2.1% in October and core steady at 2.4%. The…
The November Ifo survey disappointed, highlighting weakening expectations for Germany and limited near-term upside for European growth. The Business Climate Index fell to 88.1 from 88.4, driven by expectations dropping to 90.6 from 91.6, while current…
November flash PMIs confirmed sluggish global momentum, reinforcing a defensive stance with tactical support for the USD. The US composite PMI rose to 54.8, driven by stronger services but weaker manufacturing. The Euro area showed a similar pattern, with…