The November ZEW survey confirmed mixed sentiment in Europe, showing growth momentum is not taking off yet. Euro area growth expectations ticked up to 25.0 from 22.7, while German expectations missed estimates, edging down to 38.5…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
The ECB held rates at 2% for a third consecutive meeting, signaling policy stability as inflation sits at target and growth risks fade. The European central bank has cut a total of 200 bps since 2024, and while inflation could…
Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3…
The euro’s strong performance this year remains underpinned by structural forces, but near-term headwinds are starting to emerge, arguing for patience in adding exposure.The euro’s sharp 10% appreciation against the Chinese yuan this…
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and…
Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babis and his populist ANO party won the Czech parliamentary elections, securing 40% of the seats, short of an outright majority. The outcome was broadly in line with expectations but was viewed…
Our DM strategists recommend regional bond overweights in the UK, Canada, and Sweden, and express policy divergence through tactical FX trades: long USD, underweight GBP and SEK, and long JPY vs. EUR. Most G10 central banks are…