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Euro Area

A Tactical Reprieve For European Assets?
While geopolitics captured the latest headlines, Eurozone  economic surprises  have turned positive, while those in the US are on the verge of turning negative. Global economic surprises hinge on expectations and realized data, and they play a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe Is Next
Our European strategists evaluate the looming threat of US tariffs on Europe, as it is President Trump’s next trade target after Canada, Mexico and China. While a deal centered on European energy imports and defense spending is likely, uncertainty will remain…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Euro Area Disinflation Remains Under Way
January flash inflation for the Eurozone slightly beat expectations, with headline HICP ticking up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in December, and core steady at 2.7%, above the ECB’s target. Services ticked down to 3.9% from 4.0%. The Eurozone inflation outlook…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB: Steady As She Goes

The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a result, if we combine our economic forecasts for the Eurozone with Frankfurt’s data dependency, we continue to expect the ECB’s deposit rate to settle below 2%. Consequently, German bond yields have downside, and the euro has yet to bottomed.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
ECB Cuts On Its Way To Neutral
The ECB cut by 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Despite avoiding committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track”, and did not push against current market pricing,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe: Rate Cuts Will Only Help Growth With A Delay
The January 2025 ECB bank lending survey saw a net tightening of credit standards in Q4 2024. Credit standards were tightened for business and consumer lending, and were roughly unchanged for home mortgage loans. Banks expect further tightening across all…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Global Headwinds Still Weighing On European Growth
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Lacking Conviction

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Get Ready For Bessenomics
Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration.  Secretary Bessent is expected…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump Day One: Threats And Opportunities For Europe

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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