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Euro Area

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Germany: Sick But Not Dead

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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The US Will Turn Hawkish On Trade, Foreign Policy, Or Both (GeoRisk Update)

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Germany: Sick But Not Dead
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
ECB Cuts Rates, Signals Disinflationary Process Is Well On Track
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the disinflationary…
Daily Insights
Hard Data Shows Further Evidence Of Global Slowdown
Japanese core machinery orders decreased by 1.9% in August and dropped 3.4% year-over-year, missing expectations for modest growth. This decline reversed July’s improvement, when machinery orders grew at an 8.7% annual pace. Japanese core machinery orders…
Daily Insights
ECB Bank Lending Survey: A Bright Spot For Europe
Banks reported an increase in loan demand from both firms and households in the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey, marking the first rise since 2022. This demand increase occurred as lending standards for firms remained roughly unchanged after two…
Daily Insights
Fade European Sentiment Uptick
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.5 to -86.9. The expectations…
Daily Insights
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fade The Improvement In Eurozone Investor Sentiment
The Sentix Investor Confidence index unexpectedly improved in October from -15.4 to -13.8. A notable improvement in Expectations (from -8.0 to -3.8) drove the overall index higher, while the Current Situation subcomponent declined for a fourth consecutive…
Daily Insights

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