Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Euro Area

The Euro Area Economy Is Vulnerable
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive. Real interest rates stand 370bps…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240726_153501.PNG
Will The ECB Save The Day?

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Euro Area Earnings Likely To Disappoint By A Wide Margin
We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical Eurozone economy is particularly…
Daily Insights
European Stocks Abhor Trump
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the impact on global trade from another round of tariffs under a potential Trump administration is an emerging risk to Europe. The underperformance of European equities relative to US ones…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240719_165212.PNG
Europe Trembles At the Trump Tremor

As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
f_image_20240719_211804.PNG
Notes On The EUR, GBP And JPY

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and suggests a few trade ideas.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
f_image_20240718_173630.PNG
Geopolitics In Q3 2024

Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
ZEW Survey Is Too Optimistic
The Euro Area economy broadly surprised to the upside in the first half of 2024. Cooling inflation lifted real wages and the global late cycle amelioration benefitted the pro-cyclical Euro Area economy, but these tailwinds are fading. First, monetary…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Stocks Rely On Growth, Not French Politics
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the threat to European equities stems from growth, not French politics. After the dissolution of the French parliament on June 9th, investors sold European assets, anxious that the far left…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240712_160924.PNG
How Far Will European Earnings Fall?

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

Related Topics

Denmark Iceland Norway Sweden Switzerland UK See more Topics