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Euro Area

French Election: No Majority Without The Centrists
France’s snap election is over and, according to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble paid off in some ways: neither the far right nor the far left can form a government, while his centrist alliance has…
Daily Insights
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Macron’s Gambit Paid Off (Sort Of)

At first glance, France has moved to the far left. However, this coalition is fragile, and Macron’s allies still hold the balance of power. What are the assets that will benefit from this new political setup, and those that will not?

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Mathieu Savary
German Factory Orders Disappoint
ed on Thursday. The month-on-month contraction deepened to 1.6% in June from a contraction of 0.6% in May, revised down from the previously reported 0.2%, well below expectations of a modest 0.5% expansion. Indeed, Germany confronts material headwinds. …
Daily Insights
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The Best Possible World For European Stocks?

Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Cooling June Inflation Doesn’t Guarantee A July ECB Cut
Eurozone headline inflation slowed from 2.6% y/y to 2.5% in June. Germany, its largest economy, saw price pressures ease from 2.4% to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3% (or from 2.8% to 2.5% on an EU-Harmonized basis). However, Euro Area core inflation…
Daily Insights
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Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November

In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment is nigh. Act accordingly!

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
The World's Growth Engine Is Sputtering
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent. This will impede structural rallies in the Chinese stock…
Daily Insights
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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The ECB Will Be More Dovish Than The BoE
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025. The UK’s monetary policy remains…
Daily Insights
German IFO Surprises To Downside
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest amelioration to 89.6.  The IFO…
Daily Insights

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