Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services…
European sentiment indicators weakened again in August and September, reinforcing tactical US outperformance. While the September flash consumer confidence print beat expectations, it is still sluggish. Surveys such as Sentix and ZEW…
One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper…
The ECB left policy unchanged in September, reiterating a data-dependent stance and signaling no urgency to ease. Markets barely reacted, consistent with a fully discounted decision. The Governing Council appears confident in a soft…
European sentiment continues to weaken, reinforcing the tactical case for US outperformance over Europe. The September Sentix Investor Confidence index fell to -9.2 from -3.7, defying expectations for an increase and signaling that…
Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the…
The European Central Bank has achieved a soft landing. Inflation is back to target, with well-anchored inflation expectations. The unemployment rate is historically low, and real economic growth is stable, albeit weak. Given that…
A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.