Euro Area
Reports of a potential US–Russia peace proposal revived speculation about a ceasefire, creating short-term downside risks for European defense equities. The 28-point framework, led by Trump’s negotiator, signals that both sides are exploring terms for a…
European sentiment remains mixed, with growth momentum failing to pick up despite brighter long-term prospects. Economic surprises have improved since mid-October, but tight financial conditions, driven by a strong euro and higher Bund yields since the start…
The November ZEW survey confirmed mixed sentiment in Europe, showing growth momentum is not taking off yet. Euro area growth expectations ticked up to 25.0 from 22.7, while German expectations missed estimates, edging down to 38.5 from 39.3. Current…
Our European strategists turn overweight Swedish equities and initiate a short NOK/SEK position as Nordic central banks pause but their economies diverge. Sweden’s recovery and stable inflation allow the Riksbank to join the “easing-cycle-complete” club,…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.
The ECB held rates at 2% for a third consecutive meeting, signaling policy stability as inflation sits at target and growth risks fade. The European central bank has cut a total of 200 bps since 2024, and while inflation could undershoot next year, any…
Germany’s October Ifo survey was mixed, with better expectations but weaker current conditions, underscoring a fragile European outlook. The headline Business Climate index rose above estimates to 88.4 from 87.7. The improvement came from higher expectations,…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3 from 37.3. Current…
The euro’s strong performance this year remains underpinned by structural forces, but near-term headwinds are starting to emerge, arguing for patience in adding exposure.The euro’s sharp 10% appreciation against the Chinese yuan this year will handicap…