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Euro Area

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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q1/24 Review & Outlook: Growth Shock

In this report, we present our quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. The anti-growth bias of the portfolio allocations hurt the portfolio performance in Q1/2024 as global growth surprised to the upside. However, we anticipate some recovery of the underperformance in our base case scenario for the next six months.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
EM Small Caps Bucking the Trend
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Signals A June Rate Cut

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
ECB: Mark Your Calendar For June
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Daily Insights
Southern and Northern Europe: Role Reversal
Italy and Spain have a poor reputation when it comes to their economies. The European debt crisis affected them more than other Euro Area countries. Their housing markets collapsed and debt cost soared. France and Germany, while also affected, were the bright…
Daily Insights
German Industrial Production Growth Reaches 13-Month High
German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…
Daily Insights
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Listening To Europe’s Credit Impulse

Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
European Inflation Falls Below Expectations
Flash estimates for Euro Area inflation in March surprised to the downside. Headline inflation slowed from 2.6% to 2.4% versus expectations of 2.5% and core inflation eased from 3.1% to 2.9% versus expectations of 3%. While the stickiness of services…
Daily Insights
Neutral BTP-Bund Spreads, Favor BTPs Versus Euro Area IG
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should favor Italian BTPs over Euro Area IG until there is a better entry point to add exposure to BTP-bund spreads. The team’s latest estimates of the neutral rate suggest that,…
Daily Insights
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Italy Is No Longer Europe’s Problem Child

Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso

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