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Euro Area

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The Burden Of Austerity

Europe’s productivity growth lags that of the US. While structural factors contribute to Europe’s lower productivity level, the region’s recent lost decade plays an even greater role.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The ECB Needs Further Evidence That Inflation Is Heading To 2%
The preliminary Eurozone inflation release suggests that price pressures eased by less than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation slowed from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y (slightly above expectations of 2.5% y/y. Similarly, although the core inflation gauge…
Daily Insights
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Comparison Shopping Between European Corporates & Italian Government Bonds

In this Strategy Insight, we take a comparative look at two of the largest spread product sectors in Europe – Italian government bonds and investment grade corporates. We make the case for favoring Italy over investment grade in the event of a downturn in European economic sentiment.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Robis
Germany Will Likely Drag Euro Area Into Contraction
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
Daily Insights
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The Rest Of Europe Versus Germany

Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
German Ifo Signals Stabilization, Not Meaningful Recovery
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
Daily Insights
Wage Slowdown Is A Positive Development For The ECB
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…
Daily Insights
Irrational Exuberance?
Nvidia’s blowout Q4 2023 earnings results and bullish guidance catalyzed a rally in global stocks that pushed the S&P 500, Europe’s Stoxx 600, and Japanese Nikkei to record highs on Thursday. The S&P 500 is already expensive. It is true that Big…
Daily Insights
European Political Risk Is Turning Up Again
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing populist parties perform well but…
Daily Insights
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Global Risks Rebounding (GeoRisk Update)

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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