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Euro Area

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A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2023 Review & 2024 Outlook: Once More, With Feeling

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Is German Consumer Sentiment Relapsing?
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of households, boosting their morale…
Daily Insights
Setting The Stage For A Q2 ECB Rate Cut
Government bond yields rallied and yield curves steepened across the Eurozone on Thursday following a less hawkish than anticipated tone from the ECB. As expected, the central bank kept policy rates unchanged and reiterated that it is still premature to…
Daily Insights
Germany's IFO Serves As A Warning
Germany’s IFO survey is sending a warning. The Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January. Importantly, increased pessimism about the current situation and the outlook are driving this deterioration in sentiment among…
Daily Insights
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Five Black Swans For 2024

Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Higher Rates Continue To Weigh On Eurozone Loan Demand
Results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey suggest that the tight monetary policy stance is still weighing on the Eurozone economy.  Banks tightened credit standards for businesses and consumers further in Q4 2023, contributing to the substantial…
Daily Insights
ECB June Rate Cut: Steeper Yield Curve Ahead
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the rate cuts priced in the €STR curve.…
Daily Insights
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ECB June Rate Cut: Two Implications

The ECB will begin cutting rates in June, what does this start date imply for the yield curve and European cyclicals?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Rate Cut Expectations Continue To Bolster German Investor Morale
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
Daily Insights

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