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Euro Area

Challenges Ahead For German Auto And Components Sector
The German auto and components sector is under stress. Year-to-date, the sector’s equity prices have declined by 3.5% relative to the broader German market, and multiple indicators suggest that further challenges lie ahead. One significant concern is the…
Daily Insights
Global Equity Currency Hedging: Dynamic Or Static? – An Update Six Years On

In this update to the two Special Reports on FX hedging of global equity portfolios with nine different home currencies, published in 2017, we show that BCA’s proprietary dynamic FX hedging strategies have consistently added value to global equity portfolios. We value quant models as an important input in our decision-making process, but we do not suggest any investor to slavishly follow them, because models cannot capture all the important fundamental changes, as demonstrated in the details of this report.

Global Asset Allocation by Xiaoli Tang
Europe: Inflation Will Come Back
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor market tight. European rates have…
Daily Insights
Done, For Now

The ECB is done lifting interest rate for the cycle and its next move will be a cut next year. Yet, European rates will climb even higher in the second half of the decade.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
China Matters For The Eurozone Industrial Sector
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP contracted for the third consecutive month,…
Daily Insights
European Bond Strategy Ahead Of A Critical ECB Meeting

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Mixed Signals From The ZEW
Results of the ZEW survey of investor sentiment delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the positive side, the indicator of economic sentiment for Germany unexpectedly ticked up from -12.3 to -11.4, surprising expectation of a further deterioration to…
Daily Insights
Hedging The Oil Risk: Sell EUR/NOK
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, valuations, interest rate differentials, and higher oil prices favor the NOK over the EUR. Higher oil prices, especially when they reflect tightening supply, act as a risk to the euro. This…
Daily Insights
Euro Update

The euro has weakened sharply since mid-July as US growth continues to outperform that of the Eurozone. Is a new bear market afoot for the common currency?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Eurozone Economic Weakness A Headwind For EUR/USD
Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m in July – significantly below…
Daily Insights

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