Consensus sees one final ECB cut; we argue two are coming as deflationary forces are building in Europe. Dive in for the trade map: falling Bund yields, tighter peripheral spreads, and a euro primed for a 2026 rebound.
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but…
The ECB held rates steady for the first time in eight meetings, signaling a slower pace of easing while downside risks and entrenched disinflation support positioning for further cuts. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.0%,…
Rising US macro uncertainty and external imbalances are reinforcing euro strength and are supportive of a long-term bullish view on EUR/USD. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist for Developed Markets ex…
Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond…
July’s ZEW data confirmed improving sentiment in Europe, but near-term conditions remain fragile, reinforcing a buy-on-dips stance for long-term investors. Euro area expectations rose to 36.1 from 35.3, with Germany also improving to…
Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are…
European equities have recently lagged the S&P 500, with short-term risks building despite a constructive long-term outlook. After reaching all-time highs in February, the EURO STOXX 50 began to stall as US markets sold off on…
UK growth data continues to disappoint, making the case for a Gilts overweight and a dovish BoE. May GDP fell 0.1% m/m, missing estimates and marking a consecutive monthly contraction after April’s 0.3% decline. Industrial and…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.