Relative growth and inflation trends point to a narrower UST/Bund spread. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, Global Fixed Income Strategist. This week, our rates strategists introduced a new US/Euro Area Relative…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
Volatility is back in UST/Bund spreads. We unpack what’s driving the moves and explain what we are watching for tactical opportunities in the UST/Bund spread.
June Eurozone inflation data and soft growth backdrop support further ECB easing and reinforce the case for long European bond exposure. Flash HICP inflation ticked up to 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%,…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
Deflationary pressures and weak core Europe growth support CE3 bond longs as rate cuts loom. The Czech and Hungarian central banks held rates steady at 3.5% and 6.5% this week, following Poland’s earlier decision to keep rates…
Tightening financial conditions, deflationary headwinds, and rising geopolitical risks argue for short-term caution on European assets. European equities have outperformed in 2025, with the EURO STOXX 50 beating the S&P 500 and…
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
European equities will face a clash of powerful forces this summer. Expect sharp swings and false breaks, creating an ideal terrain for nimble traders but a minefield for buy-and-hold investors seeking steady gains.Within this backdrop,…
President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against…