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Euro Area

EUR/USD Breaks Down, Near-Term Setup Still Fragile
EUR/USD has broken below key support, and near-term risks justify a tactical bearish stance while longer-term investors should buy dips. The pair fell through its 50-day moving average, which, along with the 20-day, had provided steady support since…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
EUR/JPY: BCA’s Emerging Consensus Short
Our strategists recommend shorting EUR/JPY, citing stretched valuations and rising reversal risks. The cross has surged more than 6% since late May, triggering new short positions from the Counterpoint, European Investment Strategy, and Global Investment…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariff Pressures Aside, Global Inflation Is Capped
Cresting price pressures and weak global growth reinforce our long duration stance, with labor market slack limiting inflation upside across most major economies. Our price pressure indexes show moderate input inflation outside the US and stable global…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB: The End Is Getting Closer

Consensus sees one final ECB cut; we argue two are coming as deflationary forces are building in Europe. Dive in for the trade map: falling Bund yields, tighter peripheral spreads, and a euro primed for a 2026 rebound.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Flat Growth And Soft Prices Reinforce Case For More ECB Easing
The ECB held rates steady for the first time in eight meetings, signaling a slower pace of easing while downside risks and entrenched disinflation support positioning for further cuts. The deposit facility rate remains at 2.0%, with the ECB adopting a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Flash PMIs Improve, But Low Growth And Trade Frictions Persist
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Strategic Long Euro Trade
Rising US macro uncertainty and external imbalances are reinforcing euro strength and are supportive of a long-term bullish view on EUR/USD. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist for Developed Markets ex US.Trump’s policy agenda is…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe And China Need Rate Cuts, The US Doesn’t (Despite Trump’s Pleas)

Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond vigilantes.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Stronger EUR, Soft Global Growth Limit Europe’s Upside
July’s ZEW data confirmed improving sentiment in Europe, but near-term conditions remain fragile, reinforcing a buy-on-dips stance for long-term investors. Euro area expectations rose to 36.1 from 35.3, with Germany also improving to beat expectations.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Markets Catching Up

Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri

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