This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
Tariffs will make a difficult job almost impossible. Hitting and sustaining a precise 2 percent inflation target is more about luck than judgement. It requires both the starting point for inflation expectations and any inflation/…
Eurozone inflation is cooling steadily, supporting our tactical overweight in German bunds versus European equities and increasing the odds of an April ECB cut. Headline HICP eased to 2.2% y/y in March from 2.3%, while core came in…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position…
This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.
Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…
European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?
The March ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 51.6 from 26.0 in February. The current situation assessment only marginally improved yet remains deeply negative at -87.6.…
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
After entering 2025 with depressed growth expectations, measures of European sentiment have seemingly bottomed, and European assets rallied. However, given the changing geopolitical order and Europe’s forceful response thus far, are…