This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income strategy team. Robert digs into Eurozone employment dynamics. January data showed that unemployment remains at record lows, but regional…
The ECB cut 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track” and described the policy stance as “meaningfully less restrictive”, signalling…
US stock market outperformance has been driven entirely by the 0.0002 percent of US superstar companies. But this superstar outperformance is based on two highly questionable assumptions: that all productivity gains from the…
Our European strategists see Europe escaping its liquidity trap, which will create a structural tailwind for European assets. Europe’s resilience amid global shocks is supported by a shift away from precautionary money demand,…
Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means…
European equities have outperformed the US so far in 2025, especially after Euro Area economic surprises started outperforming as the US is starting to disappoint. The current leadership change between US and European assets reflects…
German election results were roughly as expected, but Europe’s biggest economy suddenly just got more interesting. While the details of the governing coalition have yet to be finalized, Chancellor Merz has floated options to ease the…
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
Germany’s election delivered no major surprises but raised questions about whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will relax the “debt brake,” which caps budget deficits at 0.35% of GDP. The new coalition, comprising the…